Эксперт рассказал о главной неприятности, ждущей разорвавшую договор с Россией Украину

Ущерб Киева оценили в миллиарды

Эксперт рассказал о главной неприятности, ждущей разорвавшую договор с Россией Украину

Несмотря на геополитическую напряженность между РФ и Украиной страны остаются друг для друга важными экономическими партнерами. Например, по объему товарооборота Россия занимает первое место среди стран-покупателей украинской продукции. В 2017 году государства обменялись товарами на сумму $12 млрд – это почти на 30% больше, чем годом ранее.

Примечательно, что даже в Незалежной признают зависимость от Москвы. В августе депутат Верховной Рады Вадим Рабинович заявил, что торговый баланс с Россией растет каждый месяц, а свободная экономическая зона с Европой приносит стране только убытки. До этого министр экономики Украины Виктор Суслов предупреждал, что ухудшение торговых отношений с Россией принесет колоссальный ущерб. Он отмечал также, что прекращение сотрудничества в некоторых отраслях уже негативно сказалось на их развитии, в частности, речь идет о космической и авиационной отраслях.

Отметим, намерение не продлевать договор о Дружбе с Россией Порошенко озвучивал еще в конце лета. Тогда же украинская сторона заявляла о том, что откажется транспортировать через свою территорию газ из России. Коммерческий директор «Нафтогаза» Юрий Витренко предупредил, что в этом случае Украина потеряет более 3% ВВП — примерно столько она тратит на оборону.

Эксперты в один голос говорят о том, что Украина подобными действиями «рубит сук, на котором сидит».

— Киев так зарабатывает себе одни неприятности. Ухудшение транзитных и торговых отношений может вынудить Россию ввести с Украиной визовый режим. Тогда 2-3 миллиона трудовых мигрантов будут вынуждены вернуться из России домой. Украинская экономика потеряет зарабатываемые ими деньги и получит мощнейший фактор социальной напряженности, поскольку вернувшимся украинцам найти работу на родине будет очень сложно, — считает директор аналитического департамента «Альпари» Александр Разуваев.

Экономический эффект для России оценил в беседе с «МК» директор Экспертной группы Veta Дмитрий Жарский.

— Торговые отношения Украины и России уже несколько лет терпят бедствия, поэтому возможные риски для Российской Федерации фактически сведены к минимуму. Для России потеря торгового партнера в лице Украины омрачена лишь в некоторых стратегических областях промышленности. Что касается торговли продовольствием, то здесь в большем минусе осталась Украина, так как для нее Россия представляла масштабный рынок сбыта, чего не смогла дать Незалежной евроинтеграция. Несмотря на большие ожидания, критерии качества продукции, предъявляемые в ЕС, украинские производители пока еще удовлетворять не научились, — отметил эксперт.

Источник: mk.ru

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